ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 39 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SAT OCT 24 1998 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES DECREASED THE WINDS TO 35 KNOTS AT 12Z BUT A RECENT BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER DICTATES THAT I LEAVE THE WIND SPEED AT 45 KNOTS. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/04. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SLOW FORWARD MOTION FOR THREE DAYS WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AS A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES CUTS OFF A LOW IN CALIFORNIA. THE LBAR AND DEEP BAM ARE CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT AS FAST AS THESE TWO MODELS. LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 15.4N 111.2W 45 KTS 12HR VT 25/0000Z 15.6N 111.8W 45 KTS 24HR VT 25/1200Z 16.3N 112.5W 45 KTS 36HR VT 26/0000Z 17.2N 112.9W 45 KTS 48HR VT 26/1200Z 18.0N 111.6W 45 KTS 72HR VT 27/1200Z 20.5N 111.0W 45 KTS NNNN