ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SAT OCT 24 1998 IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS ELONGATED FROM NW TO SE...WITH DEEP CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE LOWER PART OF THAT PATTERN. DVORAK TECHNIQUE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND...CORRESPONDINGLY...THE WIND SPEED IS CURRENTLY SET AT 45 KT. WHILE THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION ARE RATHER UNCERTAIN...A SMALL WESTWARD COMPONENT IS ANALYZED. THE 00Z AVN SHOWS THAT THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE U.S. WEST COAST WILL CUTOFF OVER NEVADA BY 72 HOURS. MOST ASSOCIATED TRACK MODELS END THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION. SOME SHOW RECURVATURE WITH THE FASTEST...BAMD AND LBAR...PUTTING LESTER OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT 72 HOURS. THIS SEEMS TOO FAST...BUT THE NHC FORECAST NOW SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THAT PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE BAM OUTPUT IMPLIES INCREASING SW SHEAR. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY. THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR...RETAINING 45 KT. RAPPAPORT FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 15.0N 110.8W 45 KTS 12HR VT 24/1800Z 15.1N 111.5W 45 KTS 24HR VT 25/0600Z 15.7N 112.3W 45 KTS 36HR VT 25/1800Z 16.6N 112.9W 45 KTS 48HR VT 26/0600Z 17.6N 113.0W 45 KTS 72HR VT 27/0600Z 19.5N 111.5W 45 KTS NNNN