ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI OCT 23 1998 THE CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 215/04 IS BASED ON 24 HOURS OF MOTION. THE NOGAPS...UKMET AND AVIATION MODEL SHOW A SLOW MOSTLY NORTHWARD DRIFT FOR 72 HOURS. THE GFDL AND LBAR SHOW AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH...APPARENTLY IN RESPONSE TO A 500 MB TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 72 HOURS. SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY CALLED FOR A SLOW MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOMODATE THE POSSIBILITY SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL AND LBAR. A SMALL CDO TYPE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES PUT THE WIND SPEED AT 55 KNOTS OR LESS. ONLY A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 14.9N 110.2W 55 KTS 12HR VT 24/1200Z 14.6N 110.7W 55 KTS 24HR VT 25/0000Z 14.6N 111.5W 50 KTS 36HR VT 25/1200Z 15.3N 112.0W 50 KTS 48HR VT 26/0000Z 16.0N 112.5W 50 KTS 72HR VT 27/0000Z 18.0N 113.0W 50 KTS NNNN