ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT WED OCT 21 1998 LESTER HAS A WELL DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY DEEP CONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AN 90 KNOTS AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS INDICATED. THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF LESTER IN DAY OR TWO SO A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK SHOULD THEN BEGIN. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK MODELS WHICH ALSO RESPOND TO THE BUILDING RIDGE BY MOVING LESTER SLOWLY WESTWARD. AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 16.7N 109.0W 90 KTS 12HR VT 22/1200Z 16.7N 109.0W 90 KTS 24HR VT 23/0000Z 16.7N 109.5W 90 KTS 36HR VT 23/1200Z 17.0N 110.5W 90 KTS 48HR VT 24/0000Z 17.0N 111.5W 85 KTS 72HR VT 25/0000Z 17.0N 113.5W 75 KTS NNNN