ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT TUE OCT 20 1998 LESTER CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD 285/10 KT. THE FUTURE TRACK WILL APPARENTLY BE CONTROLLED BY THE PROGRESS OF THE UPPER-LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST AND A NARROW RIDGE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHEN THE LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT TO THE NE. IF LESTER PASSES 20N BY 48 HOURS...THEN RECURVATURE WOULD BE POSSIBLE. IF NOT...THEN THE DEVELOPING RIDGE COULD TURN LESTER AWAY FROM LAND ONCE AGAIN. THE GFDL AND SEVERAL OTHER MODELS SEEM TO SHOW THIS SCENARIO WITH THEIR TRACKS BECOMING NW OR NNW AND THEN TURNING BACK MORE TOWARD THE WEST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS OF NOW...NONE OF THE TRACK MODELS SHOW LESTER REACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA OR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO OUR TRACK OF 6 HOURS AGO. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRUCTURE HAS OCCURRED TODAY WITH A PARTIALLY FILLED EYE NOTED ON SATELLITE PICTURES. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT A 90 KT INITIAL WIND SPEED. RAPPAPORT FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 15.8N 106.6W 90 KTS 12HR VT 21/0600Z 16.3N 108.1W 90 KTS 24HR VT 21/1800Z 17.2N 109.5W 90 KTS 36HR VT 22/0600Z 18.2N 110.7W 90 KTS 48HR VT 22/1800Z 19.2N 111.6W 85 KTS 72HR VT 23/1800Z 21.0N 113.0W 80 KTS NNNN