ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT TUE OCT 20 1998 AN EYE HAS BEEN SEEN INTERMITTENTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A NEARLY CIRCULAR AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 5.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE ESTIMATE OF WIND SPEED IS AGAIN 90 KT. LESTER IS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE WNW BUT HAS ACCELERATED TO ABOUT 10 KT. THE 00Z AVN SHOWED THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE U.S. SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD A LITTLE MORE BEFORE LIFTING OUT...AND SO DOES THE 06Z RUN. IN ITS WAKE...A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY CURRENT REMAINS AT 500 MB AND THIS SHOULD HELP INDUCE A GREATER NORTHWARD COMPONENT WITH TIME. THE TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL PREDICTIONS. IT REMAINS BETWEEN THE TWO FORECAST TRACK SCENARIOS DESCRIBED 6 HOURS AGO. NO CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST. RAPPAPORT FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 15.4N 105.6W 90 KTS 12HR VT 21/0000Z 15.9N 107.1W 90 KTS 24HR VT 21/1200Z 16.7N 108.9W 90 KTS 36HR VT 22/0000Z 17.7N 110.1W 90 KTS 48HR VT 22/1200Z 18.7N 111.1W 90 KTS 72HR VT 23/1200Z 21.0N 112.5W 80 KTS NNNN