ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT TUE OCT 20 1998 THE HURRICANE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH THE CENTER APPARENTLY EMBEDDED WELL WITHIN AN AREA OF QUITE COLD CLOUD TOPS. DVORAK ANALYSES FROM TAFB AND SAB GIVE A CONSENSUS T5.0 WHICH IS EQUIVALENT TO A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS NOTED EARLIER...THERE ARE 2 GENERAL TRACK FORECAST SCENARIOS. ONE IS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IN 2-3 DAYS AS SHOWN BY THE DEEP- LAYER BAM...LBAR AND THE GFDL MODEL. THE OTHER IS A CONTINUED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AS SHOWN BY THE SHALLOW- TO MEDIUM-LAYER BAM AND THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODEL. THE LATTER SCENARIO ASSUMES THAT THE HURRICANE WILL BE ESSENTIALLY UNAFFECTED BY A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 115W-120W NORTH OF 20N. THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS THIS TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT IN 48 TO 72 HOURS...WHICH WOULD ARGUE AGAINST A NORTHWARD TURN. HOWEVER THE NOGAPS MODEL DOES NOT LIFT THE TROUGH OUT QUITE AS MUCH. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR 110W-115W SO THAT LESTER SHOULD TURN AT LEAST NORTHWESTWARD IN THAT VICINITY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS ESSENTIALLY BETWEEN THE 2 AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIOS. PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 15.2N 104.3W 90 KTS 12HR VT 20/1800Z 15.7N 105.5W 90 KTS 24HR VT 21/0600Z 16.2N 107.0W 90 KTS 36HR VT 21/1800Z 17.0N 108.5W 90 KTS 48HR VT 22/0600Z 18.0N 109.5W 90 KTS 72HR VT 23/0600Z 20.0N 111.0W 80 KTS NNNN