ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT MON OCT 19 1998 THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LESTER HAS MADE A COMEBACK THIS MORNING WITH -80 DEG C TOPS NEAR/OVER THE CENTER. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB IS 90 KNOTS WHILE SAB AND AFGW ARE 77 KNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 85 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS STILL EXPERIENCING EAST/NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WHICH IS INHIBITING THE OUTFLOW NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW MAY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST... CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. LESTER HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/9 KNOTS. THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THE CENTER MAY BE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE 12Z FIXES HOWEVER...WE WILL WAIT FOR A FEW MORE PICTURES BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENT. THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD KEEP IT ON A GENERAL WESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING THEREAFTER AS LESTER APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. MOST OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS AND IS MORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THAN 6 HOURS AGO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH NOGAPS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. THE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY AS THE HURRICANE SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO COULD EXPERIENCE SOME FRINGE EFFECTS OF LESTER...NAMELY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TIDES. GUINEY FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 14.4N 101.7W 85 KTS 12HR VT 20/0000Z 14.5N 103.0W 85 KTS 24HR VT 20/1200Z 14.7N 105.0W 85 KTS 36HR VT 21/0000Z 15.0N 106.7W 85 KTS 48HR VT 21/1200Z 15.5N 108.5W 85 KTS 72HR VT 22/1200Z 16.5N 111.5W 85 KTS NNNN