ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON OCT 19 1998 THE INTENSITY...COVERAGE...AND ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 85 KNOTS ON THIS ADVISORY. UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW IS BEING IMPEDED TO THE NORTHEAST AT THIS TIME. AS LESTER CONTINUES FARTHER TO THE WEST...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW MAY AGAIN BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST. MOTION IS SLIGHTLY FASTER TOWARD THE WEST...AROUND 8 OR 9 KNOTS. OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTION GUIDANCE AND THE 500 FLOW FORECAST FROM THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SUPPORT A CONTINUED GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY AS LESTER NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS REASONABLY CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS AND BAROTROPIC MODEL GUIDANCE. AS A PRECAUTION...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 14.2N 100.8W 85 KTS 12HR VT 19/1800Z 14.3N 102.0W 85 KTS 24HR VT 20/0600Z 14.5N 103.5W 85 KTS 36HR VT 20/1800Z 14.7N 105.3W 85 KTS 48HR VT 21/0600Z 15.0N 107.0W 85 KTS 72HR VT 22/0600Z 16.0N 110.0W 85 KTS NNNN