ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SUN OCT 18 1998 ...CORRECTION FOR INITIAL POSITION... THE U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MADE ITS PASS THROUGH LESTER A FEW HOURS AGO AND REPORTED 85 KNOT SURFACE WINDS AND A 973 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A GPS DROPSONDE. ON ITS EXIT LEG THROUGH THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT IT FOUND A FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 98 KNOTS. BASED ON THIS DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 90 KNOTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES HAVE SHOWN A FAINT EYE-TYPE FEATURE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WHILE INFRARED IMAGERY HAS BEEN LESS DEFINITIVE. THE RECON AIRCRAFT OBSERVED A CIRCULAR 15 NMI CLOSED EYE WHICH IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH ITS REPORTS YESTERDAY. THE OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WHILE IMPROVING OVER THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS STILL FORECAST... CONSISTENT WITH THE OUTPUT FROM SHIPS. THE RECON FIX ALONG WITH SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT LESTER HAS BEEN MOVING JUST SOUTH OF WEST OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 265/07 KNOTS. THIS A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. THEREAFTER...A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM NEARS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODEL NHC P91E. THE GFDL IS THE RIGHT-MOST OF THE TRACK PREDICTION GUIDANCE WHICH MOVES LESTER ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THEN BENDS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BEYOND 24 HOURS APPARENTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH APPROACHING THE LOWER U.S. WEST COAST. BESIDES BEING INCONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT MOTION HISTORICALLY THE GFDL HAS NOT BEEN A VERY GOOD PERFORMER WITH EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT FORECAST TRACK SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHES THE THREAT TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY DISCONTINUE THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTS IN THE WATCH AND WARNING AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LESTER SINCE COASTAL SECTIONS COULD STILL EXPERIENCE SOME EFFECTS OF THIS HURRICANE. GUINEY FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/2100Z 14.3N 99.0W 90 KTS 12HR VT 19/0600Z 14.3N 100.0W 95 KTS 24HR VT 19/1800Z 14.4N 101.5W 95 KTS 36HR VT 20/0600Z 14.6N 102.9W 95 KTS 48HR VT 20/1800Z 15.0N 104.5W 95 KTS 72HR VT 21/1800Z 16.0N 108.5W 95 KTS NNNN