ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SUN OCT 18 1998 THE EYE OF LESTER WHICH HAS BEEN A PROMINENT FEATURE FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SYMMETRIC CDO OF -70 TO -80 DEG C CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE WILL BE HELD AT 85 KNOTS WITH A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE LESTER LATER TODAY. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STILL HAS FAIR OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AHEAD...PER CIMSS ANALYSES. THUS...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. A 24-HOUR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THAT LESTER HAS BEEN MOVING ON A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/07 KNOTS. A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL- DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODEL P9UK. AS A CONSEQUENCE...THE THREAT TO SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD DIMINISH. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT LESTER COULD MOVE MORE NORTHWESTWARD AND COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS. IF THE CURRENT MOTION PERSISTS THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO MAY DISCONTINUE THE HURRICANE WARNINGS LATER TODAY. GUINEY FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 14.5N 98.1W 85 KTS 12HR VT 19/0000Z 14.6N 99.2W 90 KTS 24HR VT 19/1200Z 15.0N 100.9W 95 KTS 36HR VT 20/0000Z 15.3N 102.4W 95 KTS 48HR VT 20/1200Z 16.0N 104.5W 95 KTS 72HR VT 21/1200Z 17.0N 108.0W 95 KTS NNNN