ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 1998 SATELLITE-BASED ESTIMATES OF INTENSITY HAVE DECREASED ONE-HALF T- NUMBER FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...MORE IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS RECON OBS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 85 KT. HOWEVER...FORECAST TRACK IS STARTING TO SLOWLY MOVE LESTER AWAY FROM MAINLAND...AND LEAVES THE POSSIBILITY FOR LATER STRENGTHENING. LESTER IS MOVING MORE TOWARD THE WEST 280/05 KNOTS. IF THIS PERSISTS THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE MAINLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWEST OR APPROXIMATELY PARALLEL TO THE COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH. JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 14.7N 96.5W 85 KTS 12HR VT 18/1200Z 14.8N 97.3W 90 KTS 24HR VT 19/0000Z 15.1N 98.6W 95 KTS 36HR VT 19/1200Z 15.6N 100.2W 95 KTS 48HR VT 20/0000Z 16.3N 102.0W 90 KTS 72HR VT 21/0000Z 17.7N 105.8W 90 KTS NNNN