ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 1998 CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SINCE THE HURRICANE HUNTERS DEPARTED A FEW HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...THE EYE AND EYEWALL REMAIN WELL DEFINED AND GIVEN THAT THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATED WIND SPEED...BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA...WAS ALREADY BELOW THE SATELLITE-BASED ESTIMATES...85 KT IS AGAIN CHOSEN AS THE WIND SPEED ESTIMATE. LESTER IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ONCE AGAIN...ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST. THE 12Z AVN SUGGESTS THAT THE STEERING FLOW...IF REPRESENTED BY THE WINDS AT 500 MB...INCREASES BY ABOUT 5 KT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UNFORTUNATELY...THAT MODEL DOESN/T DISTINGUISH BETWEEN LESTER AND MADELINE AT 850 MB AT THE END OF THAT PERIOD. THE GFDL SHOW A MARKED ACCELERATION TO NEAR 20 KT BEGINNING NOW...WHICH SEEMS UNREALISTIC. MOST OF THE REST OF THE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION...SHOWING LESTER MOVING PARALLEL TO AND NEAR THE SW COAST OF MEXICO. THIS REQUIRES EXTENDING THE HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWESTWARD TO INCLUDE ACAPULCO. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS SHOWN. RAPPAPORT FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 14.8N 96.2W 85 KTS 12HR VT 18/0600Z 15.0N 97.2W 90 KTS 24HR VT 18/1800Z 15.6N 98.8W 95 KTS 36HR VT 19/0600Z 16.0N 100.4W 95 KTS 48HR VT 19/1800Z 16.6N 101.9W 90 KTS 72HR VT 20/1800Z 18.0N 105.0W 90 KTS NNNN