ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 1998 LESTER HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR MORE THAN 6 HOURS. THE 00Z AVN FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE FLOW IN LESTER/S VICINITY...AROUND THE SW SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO NUDGE THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE WNW. THE NWS AND NOGAPS TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOW THIS...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE CURRENTLY FLYING THROUGH LESTER. THEY FOUND 93 KT WINDS NE AND SE OF THE CENTER AT 700 MB. A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF AROUND 973 MB WAS MEASURED BY DROPSONDE. THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED FROM THIS DATA TO BE NEAR 85 KT. SLIGHT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REDUCED BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA. RAPPAPORT FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 14.6N 95.5W 85 KTS 12HR VT 18/0000Z 14.7N 95.8W 90 KTS 24HR VT 18/1200Z 14.9N 96.6W 95 KTS 36HR VT 19/0000Z 15.2N 97.5W 95 KTS 48HR VT 19/1200Z 15.6N 98.6W 90 KTS 72HR VT 20/1200Z 16.5N 100.5W 90 KTS NNNN