ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 1998 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT LESTER CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE HURRICANE HAS AN EYE EMBEDDED BY A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION AND T-NUMBERS ARE 4.5 AND 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 80 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ABOUT 6 KNOTS. THERE IS ENOUGH RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO TO KEEP LESTER MOVING ON THIS GENERAL TRACK AND THIS IS REFLECTED BY MOST OF THE MODELS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF LESTER WILL BE MOVING PARALLEL AND VERY CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE BUT ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH COULD BRING THE CORE INLAND. REGARDLESS...THE SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE COASTLINE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...PRIMARILY BECAUSE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE CORE OF HURRICANE OVER WATER. AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0900Z 14.6N 95.6W 80 KTS 12HR VT 17/1800Z 15.0N 96.5W 85 KTS 24HR VT 18/0600Z 15.5N 97.5W 90 KTS 36HR VT 18/1800Z 16.0N 99.0W 90 KTS 48HR VT 19/0600Z 16.5N 100.0W 90 KTS 72HR VT 20/0600Z 17.5N 101.5W 85 KTS...INLAND NNNN