ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 1998 AS THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE LEFT THE HURRICANE AT 2100Z IT REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 989 MB. LATEST DEVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 4.5 AND AN ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 980 MB. SO MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 75 KTS. LESTER HAS SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY AND TAKEN A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION. INITIAL MOTION IS 295/04 KTS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LESTER WILL TRACK ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE BUT A SLIGHT CHANGE IN DIRECTION COULD BRING THE HURRICANE INLAND. REGARDLESS...THE SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE COASTLINE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND PARALLELS THE COASTLINE AND IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOW RELATIVELY LITTLE MOTION. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 14.5N 94.9W 75 KTS 12HR VT 17/1200Z 14.8N 95.5W 80 KTS 24HR VT 18/0000Z 15.2N 96.4W 80 KTS 36HR VT 18/1200Z 15.7N 97.6W 60 KTS 48HR VT 19/0000Z 16.1N 98.7W 55 KTS 72HR VT 20/0000Z 17.1N 100.8W 50 KTS NNNN