ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 1998 AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT HAS CONFIRMED THE ESTIMATES MADE FROM SATELLITE PICTURES EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THE HURRICANE HUNTERS INITIALLY FOUND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 993 MB AND THEN 992 MB. WHILE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 70 KT WERE FOUND ON THE ONLY LEG NE OF THE CENTER...A DROP IN THE EYEWALL SHOWED WINDS AS HIGH AS 80 KT...AND 71 KT AT THE SURFACE.. CLOUD TOPS WARMED CONSIDERABLY TODAY...BUT AN EYE HAS BECOME VISIBLE ON SATELLITE PICTURES AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE NOW 4.0. LESTER IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WITH 70 KT SURFACE WINDS. THE NW HEADING HAS PERSISTED...ALTHOUGH THE PAST FEW HOURS SUGGEST A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING. THE FORWARD MOTION APPEARS TO HAVE DECREASED TO ABOUT 5 KT. THE 12Z AVN KEEPS LESTER ON THE SW SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. ASSOCIATED TRACK MODELS AND THE NHC FORECAST SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE NW HEADING...AND LANDFALL WITHIN 24 HOURS. IN CONTRAST...THE UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOW RELATIVELY LITTLE MOTION. AS LESTER NEARS LAND...THE CENTER COULD BE DIVERTED AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO. ON POSSIBILITY IS FOR LESTER TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ON THE WEST SIDE OF THESE OBSTACLES...ALONG THE COAST IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF ACAPULCO. A MORE DRASTIC CHANGE IN TRACK WOULD OCCUR IF LESTER TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH AND MOVED INTO THE PASS NORTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. RAPPAPORT FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 14.4N 94.7W 70 KTS 12HR VT 17/0600Z 15.0N 95.4W 75 KTS 24HR VT 17/1800Z 15.8N 96.4W 75 KTS 36HR VT 18/0600Z 16.4N 97.5W 35 KTS...INLAND 48HR VT 18/1800Z 16.8N 98.7W 30 KTS...INLAND 72HR VT 19/1800Z 17.5N 100.5W 20 KTS...INLAND NNNN