ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 1998 COLD CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO WRAP CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE CENTER FROM THE NE...BUT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED SO NEITHER HAS THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED...50 KT. MORE INFORMATION COULD BE AVAILABLE LATER TODAY WHEN A U.S. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM. THIS FLIGHT IS PART OF A TEST TO WORK OUT OVERFLIGHT CLEARANCE PROCEDURES FOR MEXICO. THE MOTION REMAINS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STEERING CURRENT NEAR LESTER...BUT THE TRACK GUIDANCE PAINTS A MORE CONFUSED PICTURE. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT MOTION TO LANDFALL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE NOGAPS HEADS SE...THE UKMET SHOWS DISSIPATION NEAR THE CURRENT POSITION...AND THE GFDL AND BAM STOP SHORT OF THE COAST. THE PRIMARY THREAT OVER LAND WILL BE PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN...FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAPPAPORT FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 14.3N 94.3W 50 KTS 12HR VT 17/0000Z 14.7N 95.1W 55 KTS 24HR VT 17/1200Z 15.6N 96.1W 65 KTS 36HR VT 18/0000Z 16.4N 97.1W 30 KTS...INLAND 48HR VT 18/1200Z 16.9N 98.0W 20 KTS...INLAND 72HR VT 19/1200Z 17.5N 99.5W 20 KTS...INLAND NNNN