ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 1998 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT LESTER CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH VERY DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT IS ENOUGH TO FAVOR STRENGTHENING. LESTER IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE COAST IN 24 HOURS OR SO. THEREFORE...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/07. MOST OF THE HURRICANE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 3 DAYS SINCE THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF LESTER SHOULD BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD REPRESENTATION OF THE STORM AND MOVE LESTER VERY LITTLE OR ERRATICALLY. THE PRIMARY THREAT OVER LAND IS PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN...FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 14.1N 93.8W 50 KTS 12HR VT 16/1800Z 14.8N 94.6W 55 KTS 24HR VT 17/0600Z 15.5N 95.5W 65 KTS 36HR VT 17/1800Z 16.5N 96.5W 35 KTS...INLAND 48HR VT 18/0600Z 17.0N 97.0W 30 KTS...INLAND 72HR VT 19/0600Z 18.0N 98.5W 20 KTS...INLAND NNNN