ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT THU OCT 15 1998 ...CORRECTION FOR INITIAL WIND SPEED... TD 14-E HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING THIS EVENING WITH PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES AND A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION ONGOING OVER/NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK OBJECTIVE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 3.0 FROM TAFB AND 2.5+ FROM SAB. ON THIS BASIS TD 14-E IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS...LESTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 45 KNOTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM IS WELL-ESTABLISHED AND CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST WITH LESTER BECOMING A HURRICANE BY 24 HOURS. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS. THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR WILL LIKELY BE THE SYSTEMS/S PROXIMITY TO LAND. SATELLITE FIXES OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST 6 HOURS SUGGEST THAT LESTER HAS TURNED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 305/6 KNOTS. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE U.S WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY STEERING ENVIRONMENT. MOST OF THE 00Z TRACK MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THIS SCENARIO WITH VARIATIONS IN SPEED. THE NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS SOLUTION ARE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS WHICH TURN THE SYSTEM BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN IT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A GENERAL NORTHWEST HEADING THROUGH 72 HOURS AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WITH THE LEFTWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE TRACK THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WESTWARD TO PUNTA MALDONALDO AND HAS ISSUED A HURRIANCE WATCH FROM PUNTA ARISTA TO PUNTA MALDONALDO. THE PRIMARY THREAT OVER LAND REMAINS PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN...FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. GUINEY FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 13.2N 93.3W 45 KTS 12HR VT 16/1200Z 13.7N 94.0W 55 KTS 24HR VT 17/0000Z 14.4N 94.8W 65 KTS 36HR VT 17/1200Z 15.1N 95.6W 65 KTS 48HR VT 18/0000Z 16.0N 96.5W 40 KTS...INLAND 72HR VT 19/0000Z 17.5N 98.0W 25 KTS...INLAND NNNN