ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU OCT 15 1998 DEEP CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY FORMING CLOSER TO THE CENTER. THE MOST RECENT T-NUMBERS AVAILABLE ARE 2.5 FROM TAFB AND 2.0 FROM SAB AND AFWA. HENCE...THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE TD IN NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE MOTION APPEARS TO BE TOWARD 325 DEGREES AT ABOUT 5 KT. THE 12Z AVN LARGE-SCALE PATTERN AT 500 MB RESEMBLES ITS 06Z COUNTERPART ...KEEPING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN A GENERAL SE TO NW STEERING CURRENT TO THE SW OF AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. ASSOCIATED TRACK MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFDL...SHOW A NW HEADING. THE NHC FORECAST DOES AS WELL...WITH THE SYSTEM NEAR THE COAST IN AROUND 48 HOURS. EVEN IF THAT OCCURS...THE SUBSEQUENT TRACK BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THE MOUNTAINS OF SW MEXICO COULD DIVERT THE CYCLONE EITHER UP THE COAST TOWARD ACAPULCO OR THROUGH THE GAP NORTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS...ON THE OTHER HAND...SHOW LITTLE MOTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE PRIMARY THREAT OVER LAND REMAINS PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN...FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAPPAPORT FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 13.0N 92.5W 30 KTS 12HR VT 16/0600Z 13.6N 93.0W 40 KTS 24HR VT 16/1800Z 14.3N 93.7W 45 KTS 36HR VT 17/0600Z 15.2N 94.7W 55 KTS 48HR VT 17/1800Z 16.0N 95.5W 65 KTS 72HR VT 18/1800Z 17.5N 97.5W 25 KTS...INLAND NNNN