ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT THU OCT 15 1998 FIRST VISIBLE PICTURES THIS MORNING SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION COULD BE LOCATED TO THE NE OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. IF SO...THIS IMPLIES A MOTION TOWARD THE NW OR NNW AT ABOUT 5 KT...AND AN INCREASING THREAT TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND POSSIBLY GUATEMALA. ACCORDINGLY...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED BY THE GOVERNMENTS OF THOSE COUNTRIES. THE PRIMARY THREAT...PARTICULARLY WITH A SLOW MOVEMENT EXPECTED...IS FOR HEAVY RAIN...FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. THE TD IS RATHER LARGE...CONTAINING SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BANDS. HOWEVER...THE CENTER REMAINS RELATIVELY FREE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND...WITH DVORAK T- NUMBERS STILL AT 2.0...MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL ESTIMATED AT 30 KT. A STRONG TROUGH IS MOVING INLAND ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST AND NW MEXICO. THIS MORNING/S AVN RUN MOVES THE TROUGH EASTWARD WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD EXTENT AND LITTLE NET EROSION OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS KEEPS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN A GENERAL STEERING FLOW FROM THE SE. MOST TRACK MODELS SHOW A NW HEADING. THE NHC FORECAST DOES AS WELL...AND IS OFFSET A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT CENTER POSITION ESTIMATE. RAPPAPORT FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 12.7N 92.1W 30 KTS 12HR VT 16/0000Z 13.3N 92.6W 40 KTS 24HR VT 16/1200Z 14.1N 93.3W 45 KTS 36HR VT 17/0000Z 14.9N 94.0W 55 KTS 48HR VT 17/1200Z 16.0N 95.0W 65 KTS 72HR VT 18/1200Z 18.0N 97.0W 25 KTS...INLAND NNNN