ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT THU OCT 15 1998 THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER-ORGANIZED WITH INCREASED BANDING FEATURES...AND UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IS FAIRLY PRONOUNCED OVER THE SYSTEM. THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLIMATOLOGY AND THE SHIPS MODEL. THE MOTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO INFRARED FIXES BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/05...JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A 500 MB ANTICYCLONE THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A LARGE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THUS A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND THE GFDL MODEL SUGGESTS AN EVEN MORE NORTHWARD TRACK. HOWEVER THAT MODEL DOES NOT HAVE A VERY GOOD TRACK RECORD FOR EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO AND GUATEMALA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 11.7N 92.3W 30 KTS 12HR VT 15/1800Z 12.0N 93.0W 40 KTS 24HR VT 16/0600Z 12.6N 94.0W 50 KTS 36HR VT 16/1800Z 13.5N 95.0W 60 KTS 48HR VT 17/0600Z 14.5N 96.0W 70 KTS 72HR VT 18/0600Z 17.0N 98.0W 50 KTS...INLAND NNNN