ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT WED OCT 14 1998 THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. A BANDING FEATURE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER WHILE CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING NEAR/ AROUND THE CENTER. DVORAK PATTERN-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 2.0. THUS...THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 30 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS A LARGE ENVELOPE AND THE OUTFLOW IS BECOMING WELL- ESTABLISHED. WITH SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATERS AND LITTLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ALONG THE LINES OF THE DVORAK DEVELOPMENT CURVE...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS. THE ONLY POSSIBLE HINDERANCE TO STRENGTHENING BEYOND 24-36 HOURS MAY BE THE PROXIMITY OF THE SYSTEM TO LAND. SATELLITE FIXES OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING ON A SLOW WESTWARD PATH. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/04 KNOTS. ALL THE AVAILABLE 00Z TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST HEADING THROUGH 72 HOURS...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...AS IT IS STEERED BY THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE NHC TRACK IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH P9UK AND CLIPER. THE CURRENT TRACK DOES NOT REQUIRE ANY WATCH OR WARNING ISSUANCES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE SYSTEM HEADS ON A MORE NORTHWEST COURSE AND/OR INCREASES IN SPEED. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE GUATEMALA AND THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. GUINEY FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 11.4N 91.7W 30 KTS 12HR VT 15/1200Z 11.6N 92.5W 35 KTS 24HR VT 16/0000Z 12.1N 93.3W 45 KTS 36HR VT 16/1200Z 12.7N 94.3W 55 KTS 48HR VT 17/0000Z 13.5N 95.5W 60 KTS 72HR VT 18/0000Z 15.5N 97.5W 65 KTS NNNN