ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI OCT 02 1998 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT. THERE IS AN EAST/WEST 500 MB RIDGE ANCHORED NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION. THE GFDL...NOGAPS AND UKMET ALL SHOW LITTLE MOTION FOR 72 HOURS. THE LBAR AND BAM MODELS SHOW A WESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT THROUGH 72 HOURS. ALTHOUGH A SHIP REPORTED 33 KNOTS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 15Z...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NUMEROUS OTHER SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION REMAINS BELOW STORM STRENGTH. THERE IS VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION AND WHAT CONVECTION THERE IS IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED. THE SHIPS STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO 35 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 20.6N 109.5W 30 KTS 12HR VT 03/0600Z 20.5N 109.8W 30 KTS 24HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 110.2W 35 KTS 36HR VT 04/0600Z 20.5N 110.7W 35 KTS 48HR VT 04/1800Z 20.5N 111.1W 35 KTS 72HR VT 05/1800Z 20.5N 111.9W 35 KTS NNNN