ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SUN AUG 23 1998 THE PAST 12 HOUR INITIAL MOTION IS 285/13 AND THE PAST 24 HOUR MOTION IS 295/13. THE ADVISORY INITIAL MOTION WILL BE 290/13 WHICH IS WHAT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THIS SHIFTS THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...EXCEPT AT 72 HOURS WHERE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH COULD SLOW THE FORWARD SPEED AND MOVE THE HURRICANE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS T NUMBER 6.5 OR 127 KNOTS. HOWEVER THE COLDEST TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED FROM 130 TO 125 KNOTS ON THIS BASIS. THE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS ARE DECREASED SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY ALSO BECAUSE OF THE ABOVE SUGGESTION THAT THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION TREND MENTIONED EARLIER MAY BE OVER. LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 15.0N 110.0W 125 KTS 12HR VT 23/1800Z 15.7N 111.9W 125 KTS 24HR VT 24/0600Z 16.6N 114.5W 125 KTS 36HR VT 24/1800Z 17.5N 116.8W 120 KTS 48HR VT 25/0600Z 18.3N 119.0W 110 KTS 72HR VT 26/0600Z 19.5N 121.5W 100 KTS NNNN