ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT THU AUG 13 1998 GEORGETTE HAS A DISTINCT EYE AND EXCELLENT BANDING FEATURES ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 5.0 AND 5.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. CI OBJECTIVE AND RAW NUMBERS ARE OSCILLATING AROUND 5.4 AND 6.0 RESPECTIVELY... SUGGESTING THAT WINDS ARE PROBABLY 100 KNOTS. SINCE THE CENTER OF GEORGETTE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS ALREADY THERE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST. HOWEVER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO. INITIAL MOTION IS 300/11. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE...SO A CONTINUED WET-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED. A TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST IS POSSIBLE AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS AND GEORGETTE WEAKENS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL. THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK BUT IN GENERAL THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE EITHER TOO FAST OR TOO SLOW. THE BEST OPTION IS THE GFDL WHICH IS IN THE MIDDLE. AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0300Z 18.0N 118.6W 100 KTS 12HR VT 14/1200Z 18.6N 120.3W 100 KTS 24HR VT 15/0000Z 19.7N 122.2W 90 KTS 36HR VT 15/1200Z 20.5N 124.5W 75 KTS 48HR VT 16/0000Z 21.5N 127.0W 55 KTS 72HR VT 17/0000Z 22.5N 132.0W 35 KTS NNNN