ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI AUG 07 1998 THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS POORLY ORGANIZED AND APPEARS TO BE ELONGATED ALONG A NORTH-NORTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AXIS. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY A FEW SHIP REPORTS WITH WINDS BLOWING AWAY FROM THE CIRCULATION. CONVECTION IS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED AND T-NUMBERS ARE 1.5 AND 2.0...LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. NEVERTHELESS...THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN A 25-KNOT DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME BUT THE SYSTEM COULD DEGENERATE INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING IN THIS BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EFFECTS OF COOL WATERS. SO...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF CONVECTION REDEVELOPS AND WINDS INCREASE SOME. THIS STRENGTHENING MUST OCCUR SOON BECAUSE AFTER 24 HOURS...THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER 25 DEGREE WATER AND RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. INITIAL MOTION IS 325/09. THIS TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN MORE TO WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BECOME STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0900Z 19.1N 112.5W 25 KTS 12HR VT 07/1800Z 20.2N 113.3W 30 KTS 24HR VT 08/0600Z 21.5N 114.5W 30 KTS 36HR VT 08/1800Z 23.0N 116.0W 30 KTS 48HR VT 09/0600Z 25.0N 118.0W 25 KTS 72HR VT 10/0600Z 27.0N 122.5W 20 KTS...DISSIPATING NNNN