ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU AUG 06 1998 THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED...AND ANIMATION OF VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES REVEALS A LOW-CLOUD CIRCULATION...ALBEIT ONE THAT IS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED ALONG A NORTH-NORTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AXIS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SOCORRO ISLAND...ABOUT 100 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND A SHIP ABOUT 150 N MI SOUTH OF THE CENTER...CONFIRM THAT THE CIRCULATION IS ON THE SURFACE. THUS THE SYSTEM IS BEING NUMBERED AT THIS TIME. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED AXIS...AND THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM. INITIAL MOTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT APPEARS TO BE ABOUT 325/11. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK...WHICH IS A BLEND MAINLY OF THE GFDL...NHC91 AND THE BAROTROPIC MODEL LBAR...TAKES SEVEN-E TOWARD COOLER WATERS FAIRLY SOON SO NOT MUCH STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY. HOWEVER THE INTENSITY FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED LATER IF THE SYSTEM CHANGES SIGNIFICANTLY. PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/2100Z 17.9N 112.1W 25 KTS 12HR VT 07/0600Z 19.2N 113.1W 30 KTS 24HR VT 07/1800Z 20.5N 114.2W 30 KTS 36HR VT 08/0600Z 21.5N 115.0W 30 KTS 48HR VT 08/1800Z 22.5N 116.0W 30 KTS 72HR VT 09/1800Z 24.0N 118.5W 30 KTS NNNN