ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE AUG 04 1998 SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS NON- EXISTENT. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KNOTS IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. ESTELLE WAS ONCE A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE...AND IT WILL STILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE CIRCULATION TO SPIN DOWN. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING OVER 24 TO 25 DEG C WATER AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. INITIAL MOTION IS 275/10. THE GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION WILL CONTINUE IN RESPONSE TO A PERSISTENT LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS TRACK BASICALLY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS A BLEND BETWEEN CLIPER AND THE SHALLOW BAM. MOST OTHER GUIDANCE MODELS ARE TO THE RIGHT OF OUR TRACK. MAYFIELD FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 18.7N 131.3W 45 KTS 12HR VT 05/1200Z 18.8N 132.8W 40 KTS 24HR VT 06/0000Z 18.9N 134.9W 35 KTS 36HR VT 06/1200Z 19.1N 137.1W 30 KTS 48HR VT 07/0000Z 19.3N 139.7W 25 KTS 72HR VT 08/0000Z 19.5N 145.0W 20 KTS...DISSIPATING NNNN