ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SAT AUG 01 1998 ESTELLE IS LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY. T- NUMBERS ARE OSCILLATING AROUND 5.0 AND 5.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. AN EYE IS CLEARLY OBSERVED ON IR IMAGES AND THERE ARE PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES. WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 95 KNOTS. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED EXCEPT SOME WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN ESTELLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS. INITIAL MOTION IS 270/13. THERE IS A PERSISTENT AND SOLID DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ESTELLE. THIS PATTERN WILL SUGGEST A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS. THIS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 15.9N 114.3W 95 KTS 12HR VT 02/0000Z 16.0N 116.3W 105 KTS 24HR VT 02/1200Z 16.5N 119.0W 105 KTS 36HR VT 03/0000Z 17.0N 121.5W 105 KTS 48HR VT 03/1200Z 17.5N 124.0W 100 KTS 72HR VT 04/1200Z 18.5N 130.0W 80 KTS NNNN