ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SUN JUL 26 1998 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/12. THE AVIATION MODEL 00Z RUN SHOWS A CUT-OFF 500 MB LOW TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE. IT ALSO SHOWS A RIDGE BUILDING JUST NORTH OF THE HURRICANE THROUGH 72 HOURS SUCH THAT THE TRACK SHOULD REMAIN ON A WEST TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS EXCEPT NOGAPS AND THE AVIATION MODEL ITSELF WHICH SHOW A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONCENSUS OF THE MODELS AND IS JUST SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A WELL-DEFINED LARGE EYE CONTINUES TO BE EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 90 KNOTS. THE TRACK FORECAST MOSTLY PARALLELS THE SST ISOPLETHS WITH THE CENTER NEAR 24 DEG C WATER BY 72 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING...A LITTLE SLOWER WEAKENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/1500Z 16.3N 125.8W 90 KTS 12HR VT 27/0000Z 16.5N 127.6W 85 KTS 24HR VT 27/1200Z 16.9N 130.0W 75 KTS 36HR VT 28/0000Z 17.4N 132.7W 65 KTS 48HR VT 28/1200Z 18.0N 135.5W 55 KTS 72HR VT 29/1200Z 19.5N 141.0W 40 KTS NNNN