ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT FRI JUL 24 1998 DARBY HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING WITH INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION AND A RATHER IMPRESSIVE...WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. MOREOVER...THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL HINTS OF A WARM SPOT IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY... SUGGESTIVE OF EYE DEVELOPMENT...WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW 4.0...65 KNOTS. THUS...DARBY IS BEING UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS. DARBY CONTINUES ON A CLIMATOLOGICALLY-FAVORED WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10 KNOTS. DARBY/S MOTION APPEARS TO BE CONTROLLED PRIMARILY BY THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 32N/125W WILL CUT-OFF AND DRIFT WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE WESTWARD BUILDING RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST ACCEPTS THIS SCENARIO...AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE SHOWING A GENERAL WEST/WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NO IMPEDANCE TO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE NOTED ABOVE. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE INTENSITY IS DECREASED SLIGHTLY BY 72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES MARGINALLY COOLER WATERS. GUINEY/LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 14.0N 116.9W 65 KTS 12HR VT 25/0000Z 14.4N 118.4W 75 KTS 24HR VT 25/1200Z 14.8N 120.6W 85 KTS 36HR VT 26/0000Z 15.3N 123.1W 90 KTS 48HR VT 26/1200Z 15.8N 125.7W 90 KTS 72HR VT 27/1200Z 16.5N 131.5W 80 KTS NNNN