ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON JUN 22 1998 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM BLAS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BOTH 3.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB. THE SYSTEM IS ON A MODERATE INTENSIFICATION TREND. VISIBLE PICTURE ANIMATION SHOWS GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADS EXCEPT THE NORTHEAST WHERE IT IS EITHER NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY INWARD. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER SOME OF THE WARMEST WATERS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC SO THAT THE SUPPLY OF LATENT AND SENSIBLE HEAT IS NOT A PROBLEM. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 45 KTS. INTENSIFICATION TO A HURRICANE IS FORECAST IN 24 HOURS OR SO. INITIAL MOTION IS 310/13. ALL TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE DIRECTION OF MOTION BUT DIFFER IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DIRECTION OF THE MODEL FORECASTS BUT IS A COMPROMISE IN THE DIFFERENT SPEEDS. JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 10.9N 97.9W 45 KTS 12HR VT 23/0600Z 12.0N 99.5W 55 KTS 24HR VT 23/1800Z 13.4N 101.8W 65 KTS 36HR VT 24/0600Z 14.8N 104.1W 75 KTS 48HR VT 24/1800Z 16.2N 106.4W 85 KTS 72HR VT 25/1800Z 18.6N 111.2W 85 KTS NNNN