ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 4 PM EST WED NOV 25 1998 SHEARING CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE STORM AND CENTER IS BECOMING EXPOSED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DENSE OVERCAST. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NEAR 45 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY...SINCE STRONG UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. NICOLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MOSTLY WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SURVIVES TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND THAT TIME AS THE SYSTEM NEARS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII ARE INCREASED A LITTLE MORE OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON AN 18Z OBSERVATION OF 36 KNOTS FROM A SHIP...CALL SIGN PJRO...AND SSM/I DATA. PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/2100Z 26.0N 35.0W 45 KTS 12HR VT 26/0600Z 25.5N 36.3W 35 KTS 24HR VT 26/1800Z 25.5N 38.0W 30 KTS 36HR VT 27/0600Z 25.5N 39.5W 30 KTS 48HR VT 27/1800Z 26.0N 41.0W 25 KTS 72HR VT 28/1800Z 27.0N 43.0W 20 KTS NNNN