ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR TROPICAL DEPRESSION MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER 41 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 3 PM CST SAT OCT 31 1998 ...CORRECTION TO 5TH PARAGRAPH... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MITCH HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE HONDURAS-GUATEMALA-EL SALVADOR BORDER. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MITCH STILL HAS A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS OCCURRING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SEVERAL 15Z SHIPS OBSERVATIONS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS WERE RECEIVED LATE THIS MORNING SHOWING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE ...33 KNOTS FROM SHIP C6YE AND 54 KNOTS FROM C6HH3...WELL REMOVED FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THESE OBSERVATIONS WERE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAS SINCE WEAKENED. AFTER SPEAKING WITH THE BELIZE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE THEY INFORMED US OF THE FUNNELING EFFECT WHICH OCCURS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THUS...THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY ATTRIBUTABLE TO A COMBINATION OF THE CONVECTION AND THE LOCAL FUNNELING EFFECT. A *SMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN PORT* STATEMENT HAS BEEN ADDED TO BOTH THE PUBLIC AND FORECAST/ADVISORY PRODUCTS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT TO MARINE AND COASTAL INTERESTS. THIS STATEMENT ALSO COVERS THE PACIFIC COASTAL AREAS AS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED AND WE HAVE RECEIVED SOME SHIP REPORTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS...MAINLY OFFSHORE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/10 KNOTS. BOTH THE AVIATION AND NAVY GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BREAKING DOWN DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE OWING TO THE INITIAL WESTWARD MOTION. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY OVER 8000- 10000 FT PEAKS AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK HAS THE SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF GUATEMALA. THUS...THE SYSTEM MAY NOT SURVIVE AS LONG AS FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK BRINGS THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO...AND THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT THE CENTER COULD MOVE INTO...OR REFORM OVER...PACIFIC WATERS LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MITCH CONTINUES TO PULL IN MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC HELPING FUEL SOME DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY WEST OF THE CENTER. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA...SOUTHERN EL SALVADOR...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF HONDURAS ...WESTERN NICARAGUA...AND THE ADJACENT EAST PACIFIC WATERS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. GUINEY FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/2100Z 14.5N 89.9W 30 KTS 12HR VT 01/0600Z 14.7N 91.3W 30 KTS...INLAND 24HR VT 01/1800Z 15.4N 92.7W 30 KTS...INLAND 36HR VT 02/0600Z 16.4N 93.9W 30 KTS...INLAND 48HR VT 02/1800Z 17.5N 94.5W 30 KTS...INLAND 72HR VT 03/1800Z 19.5N 94.0W 30 KTS NNNN