ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 4 AM EST SUN OCT 25 1998 SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY WELL DEFINED EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A COLD CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. HURRICANE HUNTERS RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 949 MB WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE DROP OF 27 MB OVER 13 HOURS. MAX WINDS FROM A FLIGHT LEVEL OF 10000 FEET ARE 119 KNOTS SO FAR. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 110 KNOTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS VERY WELL ESTABLISHED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. THE NOAA JET FLEW IN THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE HURRICANE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND FOUND A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF MITCH. THIS RIDGE HAS TURNED THE HURRICANE MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 295/06. HOWEVER...MOST MODELS WEAKEN THIS RIDGE WITH TIME. NEAR THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD A 500 MB ANTICYCLONE SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A BROAD TROUGH SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...BUT THESE FEATURES APPEAR TO BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE HURRICANE TO PRODUCE ANY WELL-DEFINED STEERING FOR MITCH. WEAK STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND WE COULD SEE SOME MEANDERING OF THE HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. CURRENT TRACK CONTINUES THE GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST BUT WITH A DECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED. THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS BOTH PRACTICALLY STALL THE HURRICANE AFTER 36 HOURS ...WHILE THE NAVY NOGAPS CONTINUES A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS. NOTE: THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WOULD ALLOW SOME TIME FOR THE LONG RANGE PATTERN TO CHANGE AND CONSEQUENTLY A FUTURE CHANGE IN THE TRACK COULD OCCUR. INTERESTS IN THE ENTIRE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS STRENGTHENING HURRICANE. MAYFIELD FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0900Z 16.0N 79.2W 110 KTS 12HR VT 25/1800Z 16.4N 80.1W 115 KTS 24HR VT 26/0600Z 16.7N 81.0W 120 KTS 36HR VT 26/1800Z 17.0N 81.7W 120 KTS 48HR VT 27/0600Z 17.3N 82.5W 120 KTS 72HR VT 28/0600Z 17.5N 83.5W 120 KTS NNNN