ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 1998 ...CORRECTION FOR INTENSITY FORECAST... KARL HAS MAINTAINED A SMALL NICELY DEFINED EYE...ABOUT 10 NM IN DIAMETER...FOR THE LAST 4-6 HOURS. SATELLITE-BASED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 5.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. THUS.. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS INVOLVED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES COOLER WATERS...25 DEG C BY 24 HOURS...AND BEGINS ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS KARL BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY BY 36 HOURS...WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL AT 48 HOURS. KARL CONTINUES TO MOVE ON A NORTHEASTERLY HEADING AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 045/17 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD PERSIST...WITH A GRADUAL ACCELERATION...FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PROPAGATES EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. GUINEY FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0300Z 34.4N 46.7W 90 KTS 12HR VT 27/1200Z 36.4N 44.4W 80 KTS 24HR VT 28/0000Z 39.5N 40.0W 70 KTS 36HR VT 28/1200Z 42.0N 34.0W 60 KTS 48HR VT 29/0000Z 44.0N 28.0W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 30/0000Z 45.5N 14.0W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN