ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU SEP 24 1998 KARL HAS SLOWED AND ITS TRACK IS NOW SOUTH OF EAST...AROUND 110/10 KNOTS. THE 00Z NOGAPS HAD THE BEST START OF THE MODELS. WHILE SOME TRACK MODELS ARE SIMILAR TO OUR FORECAST OF 6 HOURS AGO...BOTH THE 00Z NOGAPS AND AVN/MRF SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE ABSORBED OR PICKED UP BY THE COLD FRONT PASSING BY TO THE NW AND WILL INSTEAD DAWDLE OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN ATLANTIC FOR A FEW DAYS. THE AVN/MRF SHOW THE SYSTEM LIFTED OUT IN A FEW DAYS BY THE WESTERLIES WHILE THE LONGER RANGE NOGAPS SHOWS A COMPLEX INTERACTION WITH JEANNE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW A SLOWER MOTION THAN WE PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THE SYSTEM REMAINS SMALL BUT IS STILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KT. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THE NOGAPS RUN EVENTUALLY SHOWS KARL GROWING IN SIZE TO BECOME THE DOMINANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE ATLANTIC. RAPPAPORT FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 32.3N 57.3W 40 KTS 12HR VT 25/0000Z 31.3N 55.7W 45 KTS 24HR VT 25/1200Z 30.6N 52.9W 45 KTS 36HR VT 26/0000Z 30.6N 50.4W 50 KTS 48HR VT 26/1200Z 31.1N 47.4W 50 KTS 72HR VT 27/1200Z 33.0N 40.0W 50 KTS NNNN