ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 1998 AS EXPECTED...A NNW MOTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH THE TURN BACK TO THE LEFT MOST LIKELY INDUCED BY THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS CUTOFF JUST TO THE SOUTH. ANOTHER VORTMAX IS VISIBLE IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NW...AND THIS COULD HELP TURN IVAN TO THE NORTH AGAIN. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE NNW MOTION CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SOME MODELS STILL SHOW A TURN TOWARD THE EAST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFDL TRACK TO THE WEST WITH DISSIPATION DOESNT SEEM TOO REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. THE CENTRAL CLOUD FEATURES WRAPPED UP A LITTLE TODAY AND THE EFFECT OF SHEAR SEEMS TO HAVE DIMINISHED. AN FAINT EYE-LIKE FEATURE WAS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE PICTURES AT 1715 AND 1745 UTC. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 55 KT...A LITTLE ABOVE THE ESTIMATES FROM SATELLITE ANALYSTS. GRADUAL FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE. RAPPAPORT FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 24.7N 37.4W 55 KTS 12HR VT 23/0600Z 26.4N 38.2W 60 KTS 24HR VT 23/1800Z 28.0N 39.1W 65 KTS 36HR VT 24/0600Z 29.9N 39.6W 65 KTS 48HR VT 24/1800Z 31.5N 39.6W 65 KTS 72HR VT 25/1800Z 34.0N 39.0W 65 KTS NNNN