ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 1998 SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SHEARED PATTERN WITH THE CENTER OF IVAN ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS...IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN SPITE OF THE SHEAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM MAY ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW ...SO SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. INITIAL MOTION IS CURRENTLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 11 KNOTS. AN ANALYSIS OF THE DIFFERENT FORECAST MODELS SHOWS THAT THE LBAR AND BAMD HAVE BEEN PERFORMING THE BEST FOR THE PAST SIX FORECAST CYCLES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO MODELS AND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RECURVE THE STORM TO THE NORTHEAST. JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 21.4N 36.1W 45 KTS 12HR VT 22/1800Z 23.1N 36.1W 45 KTS 24HR VT 23/0600Z 24.9N 36.1W 50 KTS 36HR VT 23/1800Z 26.6N 35.6W 50 KTS 48HR VT 24/0600Z 27.8N 34.8W 50 KTS 72HR VT 25/0600Z 29.0N 32.8W 50 KTS NNNN