ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 1998 CENTER FIXES FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOWED A CONTINUED SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT OF ABOUT 4 KT DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS MOTION AND THE TRACK OVER THE PAST 24-36 HOURS SUGGEST THAT THE TD IS SLOWLY ORBITING AROUND THE BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT IS CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WHICH COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL PART OF THAT CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 25N91W. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS AND THAN A GRADUAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK BUT A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST. CONVECTION HAS REMAINED ABOUT CONSTANT AND MAXIMUM WINDS REPORTED FROM THE RECON HAVE BEEN IN THE 25 TO 33 KT RANGE. THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND SOME INTENSIFICATION IS AGAIN FORECAST. JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0900Z 25.4N 92.8W 30 KTS 12HR VT 18/1800Z 25.1N 93.0W 35 KTS 24HR VT 19/0600Z 25.0N 93.7W 40 KTS 36HR VT 19/1800Z 25.8N 93.9W 45 KTS 48HR VT 20/0600Z 27.7N 93.9W 50 KTS 72HR VT 21/0600Z 32.6N 91.5W 25 KTS...INLAND NNNN