ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON SEP 21 1998 CORRECTION...CHANGE ST THOMAS TO ST MARTIN THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/15. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM EARLIER. THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO OVER CUBA IN 72 HOURS AND THE UKMET SHOWS A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS IN 72 HOURS. THE NOGAPS IS IN BETWEEN THE GFDL AND UKM AND SLOWER. THE LBAR IS SIMILAR TO THE GFDL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE. THIS FORECAST REQUIRES A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED FOR HAITI SHORTLY. AN AIR FORCE RECON CURRENTLY IN THE HURRICANE HAS FOUND MAX FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF ONLY 93 KNOTS AND THE CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE IS 967 MB. THE MAXIMUM ONE MINUTE SURFACE WINDS ARE DECREASED FROM 100 TO 95 KNOTS BASED ON THE RECON DATA. IF THE TRACK ACTUALLY GOES OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...THERE COULD BE FURTHER WEAKENING. IF THE TRACK STAYS OVER WATER...THERE COULD BE SOME STRENGTHENING AS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. AN UNOFFICIAL REPORT HAS BEEN RECEIVED FROM ANTIGUA OF 90 KNOTS SUSTAINED AND A GUST TO 101 KNOTS...SEVERAL HOURS AGO. THE WIND AT ST MARTIN PICKED UP TO 50 KNOTS AT 08Z. LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0900Z 17.4N 63.1W 95 KTS 12HR VT 21/1800Z 18.0N 65.2W 100 KTS 24HR VT 22/0600Z 18.7N 68.2W 100 KTS 36HR VT 22/1800Z 19.4N 70.7W 100 KTS 48HR VT 23/0600Z 20.0N 72.8W 100 KTS 72HR VT 24/0600Z 21.5N 76.0W 100 KTS NNNN