ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 1998 THE EYE REMAINS DISTINCT ON SATELLITE PICTURES THIS EVENING WITH SSM/I AND...OCCASIONALLY...GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY SUGGESTING A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL PATTERN. CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE EYE CONTINUE TO INCREASE...BUT DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE STILL 5.0...SO 90 KT IS AGAIN THE ESTIMATED WIND SPEED. THE HEADING IS 275/280 DEGREES AT ABOUT 17 KT. WHILE THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO HOLD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...DETAILS ABOUT ITS EVOLUTION ARE BECOMING CRITICAL FOR THE CARIBBEAN. MOST TRACK MODELS BASED ON THE 12Z AVN SHOW GEORGES STAYING ON A NEARLY WESTWARD COURSE AND HITTING THE LESSER ANTILLES BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THEM AND IF THIS IS STILL THE LIKELY TRACK TOMORROW MORNING...THEN A HURRICANE WARNING WILL BECOME NECESSARY. ALTERNATELY...THE MOST RECENTLY AVAILABLE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODEL OUTPUTS...FROM 12Z...FAVOR A MORE WNW TRACK WHICH PASSES A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE 18Z AVN SHOWS A MUCH SLOWER MOTION WITH GEORGES STILL EAST OF THE ISLANDS IN THREE DAYS. THIS DOESNT SEEM TOO REALISTIC AT THIS POINT. INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT NHC FORECAST TRACK FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST...THE AVERAGE NHC TRACK ERROR FOR A 48 HOUR FORECAST IS AROUND 200 MILES. SECOND...THE HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT. GEORGES IS LIKELY TO AFFECT AN AREA SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ACROSS. ALL AREAS WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH ARE POTENTIAL TARGETS OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF GEORGES REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS OUR SHIPS SCHEME. THE SHIFOR AND GFDL GUIDANCE DONT SHOW AS MUCH INTENSIFICATION. THE 34 KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SSM/I DATA MADE BY THE AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY. RAPPAPORT FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 14.0N 50.0W 90 KTS 12HR VT 19/1200Z 14.4N 52.7W 95 KTS 24HR VT 20/0000Z 14.9N 56.2W 100 KTS 36HR VT 20/1200Z 15.5N 59.7W 105 KTS 48HR VT 21/0000Z 15.9N 62.8W 110 KTS 72HR VT 22/0000Z 16.5N 68.0W 115 KTS NNNN