ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU SEP 17 1998 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT GEORGES HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE AND THE EXPERIMENTAL AND NEW OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE SUPPORTS A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. THIS IMPLIES THAT GEORGES IS NOW A HURRICANE. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC ...AND GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A 200 MB HIGH WITH EASTERLIES OVER THE DEEP TROPICS THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL BRINGS GEORGES TO 107 KNOTS BY 72 HOURS SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A 100-KNOT HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS OR SO. INITIAL MOTION IS 275/17. A DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A CONTINUED MOTION SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS ALSO SHOWN BY GFDL...LBAR AND UK MODELS. NOTE: 5-DAY GFDL AND LBAR BRING GEORGES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THERE ARE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES IN SUCH LONG RANGE FORECASTS WHICH ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE. AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 12.5N 41.1W 65 KTS 12HR VT 18/0600Z 12.8N 43.7W 75 KTS 24HR VT 18/1800Z 13.2N 47.2W 80 KTS 36HR VT 19/0600Z 14.0N 51.0W 90 KTS 48HR VT 19/1800Z 15.0N 54.0W 100 KTS 72HR VT 20/1800Z 16.0N 60.0W 100 KTS NNNN