ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 1998 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 300/09. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE...SHOWING A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES RECURVES THE HURRICANE. THIS IS BASED ON LOTS OF DATA OVER THE OCEAN FROM AN INTENSIVE MULTI AIRCRAFT MISSION LAST NIGHT. THE OFFICAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL LEFT OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE HIGHEST RECON WIND FROM THE MOST RECENT FLIGHT WAS 69 KNOTS AT 850 MB IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE RECON REPORTED THAT THE EYEWALL HAD FALLEN APART AT 03Z BUT WAS AGAIN IDENTIFIABLE AT 05Z WITH A 20 NMI DIAMETER. THEREFORE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...EVEN THOUGH THE SSTS WERE COOLED SOME BY BONNIES PASSAGE. THE SSTS ARE STILL ABOVE 86C AND THERE IS LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR NEARBY. LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0900Z 26.7N 72.7W 65 KTS 12HR VT 30/1800Z 27.5N 73.5W 70 KTS 24HR VT 31/0600Z 28.5N 74.0W 75 KTS 36HR VT 31/1800Z 29.8N 74.0W 80 KTS 48HR VT 01/0600Z 31.5N 73.0W 85 KTS 72HR VT 02/0600Z 34.5N 67.5W 85 KTS NNNN