ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU AUG 27 1998 THE LATEST RECON FOUND 97 KNOTS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT A FEW HOURS AGO. SATELLITE DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN AROUND 90 KTS. HOWEVER...MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 999 MB. AGAIN THIS PRESSURE APPEARS TO BE TOO HIGH FOR SUCH STRONG WINDS BUT PREVIOUSLY...WE HAVE OBSERVED THIS IN COMPACT HURRICANES. THE STORM APPEARS TO BE ADJUSTING ITS STRUCTURE BECAUSE OF THE CHANGING UPPER LEVEL SHEAR PATTERN. INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 80 KNOTS. THE UPPER-LOW AHEAD OF DANIELLE CONTINUES MOVING WEST AND THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY FIGHTING THE SHEAR. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE 200 MB WIND FORECASTS RELAX THE SHEAR IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO. SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL ALSO BRINGS THE HURRICANE TO ABOUT 105 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS. THEREFORE STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. INITIAL MOTION IS 290/16. DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG 500 MB HIGH CENTERED JUST EAST OF BERMUDA. MODELS ARE TIGHTLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THAT TRACK. THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE MODELS GRADUALLY TURN DANIELLE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS THE HIGH WEAKENS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODELS AND GRADUALLY TURNS DANIELLE NORTHWESTWARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND FOLLOWS THE GFDL FORECAST. JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/1500Z 21.4N 59.3W 80 KTS 12HR VT 28/0000Z 22.2N 61.8W 85 KTS 24HR VT 28/1200Z 23.4N 65.0W 90 KTS 36HR VT 29/0000Z 24.8N 68.0W 95 KTS 48HR VT 29/1200Z 26.4N 70.4W 100 KTS 72HR VT 30/1200Z 30.0N 74.0W 105 KTS NNNN