ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR ...CORRECTED DISCUSSION NUMBER... TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN AUG 02 1998 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE STORM. ALEX REMAINS IN A SHEARED STATE WITH THE CENTER LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 25N64W WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY SHEARING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS DROPPED BELOW STORM STRENGTH...BUT WE WILL WAIT FOR THE AIR FORCE RECON LATER TODAY TO CONFIRM THIS. SINCE THERE IS STILL A SLIM POSSIBILITY THAT UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME LESS HOSTILE FOR STRENGTHENING...AS INDICATED BY MODELS SUCH AS THE STATISTICAL HURRICANE INTENSITY PREDICTION SCHEME...SHIPS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE WINDS AT 35 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALEX HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW MOVING AT AN ESTIMATED 310/11. THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACKS. THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS A 500 MB LOW NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH A HIGH CENTERED JUST EAST OF BERMUDA IN 2-3 DAYS. THIS SUPPORTS A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD...PERHAPS MORE NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD... MOVEMENT OF ALEX. PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 20.1N 59.0W 35 KTS 12HR VT 03/0000Z 21.2N 60.4W 35 KTS 24HR VT 03/1200Z 22.7N 62.2W 35 KTS 36HR VT 04/0000Z 24.5N 64.0W 35 KTS 48HR VT 04/1200Z 26.5N 65.5W 35 KTS 72HR VT 05/1200Z 30.0N 68.0W 35 KTS NNNN