ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT AUG 01 1998 ALEX CONTINUES IN A SHEARED STATE WITH THE CENTER EXPOSED AND LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONVECTION. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE NORTH WHERE WINDS ARE PROBABLY REACHING TROPICAL STORM FORCE. ALTHOUGH T-NUMBERS ARE LOWER...THE CI NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM. WE WILL WAIT FOR THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WHICH WILL BE IN THE AREA LATER TODAY...TO DETERMINE IF THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION OR NOT. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO PERSIST SO STRENGTHENING IS NOT FORECAST. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST MODELS...SUGGEST A MODEST STRENGTHENING BEYOND 48 HOURS AS THE SHEAR RELAXES. THIS COULD HAPPEN ONLY IS ALEX SURVIVES THAT LONG. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP THE WINDS AT 35 KNOTS. ALEX HAS TURNED MORE TO WEST-NORTHWEST...AS EXPECTED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TROUGH 72 HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF ALEX WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. BASED ON THIS FORECAST...WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT REQUIRED FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 17.5N 55.0W 35 KTS 12HR VT 02/0000Z 18.0N 57.2W 35 KTS 24HR VT 02/1200Z 19.0N 59.5W 35 KTS 36HR VT 03/0000Z 20.0N 61.5W 35 KTS 48HR VT 03/1200Z 21.5N 63.5W 35 KTS 72HR VT 04/1200Z 24.5N 68.5W 35 KTS NNNN