ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 1998 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/17...SAME AS LAST ADVISORY. THE 00Z RUN OF THE AVIATION MODEL SHOWS THE DEPRESSION TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 3 DAYS...APPARENTLY FINDING A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THE UKMET SHOWS MORE OF A WEST-NORTHEWESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE NOGAPS AND GFDL MODELS LOSE THE CIRCULATION BY 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF ALL OF THE GUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... CALLING FOR A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND SOME DECELERATION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY-WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED THIS MORNING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM T NUMBERS 2.0 TO 2.5. THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 30 KNOTS AND GRADUAL STRENGHENING IS FORECAST AS THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/1500Z 12.9N 33.9W 30 KTS 12HR VT 29/0000Z 13.3N 36.5W 35 KTS 24HR VT 29/1200Z 14.2N 40.0W 40 KTS 36HR VT 30/0000Z 14.9N 42.0W 45 KTS 48HR VT 30/1200Z 15.5N 45.0W 50 KTS 72HR VT 31/1200Z 18.0N 49.0W 55 KTS NNNN